Why This September Could Defy Historical Market Trends
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Understanding Market Behavior
In investing, one can either be greedy when others are fearful or vice versa. Personally, I choose the latter approach, especially when maintaining a healthy cash reserve, which equips you to weather bear markets more effectively.
While rising mortgage rates, increased grocery costs, and a struggling stock market may dampen spirits, there are still positive avenues to explore, even when the public markets seem unfavorable.
Investing in alternative assets like farmland, real estate, art, natural resources, infrastructure, private debt, and even venture capital is now more accessible than ever, providing opportunities for passive income and non-correlated investment returns. Regardless of fluctuations in gas prices, farmland tends to appreciate alongside commodity prices, acting as a reliable indicator since food is an essential need.
With over 50% of Americans unable to cover a $1,000 emergency expense without resorting to debt, broadening investment opportunities beyond public equities is crucial. I'm pleased to note that such options are increasingly available today!
If you have cash reserves, now is an opportune time to secure a great deal. From September to December, sellers often become more motivated, making you a more attractive buyer in a cooler market. Always remember, there is always a bull market somewhere; seeking out the silver linings will take you further than simply following the crowd.
Before venturing into these alternative assets, however, I recommend getting on the cash train sooner rather than later. The anticipated 75 basis points hike from the Federal Reserve could be beneficial for your cash holdings and high-yield savings accounts, potentially offering returns exceeding those in equities (~2% compared to ~-20%).
A Guaranteed Safe Investment
Before I delve into the public market forecasts for September, if you're on the lookout for a solid 9% guaranteed return—yes, guaranteed, which is rare—I highly suggest considering I Savings Bonds from the U.S. Treasury. You can invest up to $10,000 per person in these bonds, and personally, I find a guaranteed return of over 6% far more appealing than any unpredictable returns of 10% or -40%.
The first video titled "Why September Is A Bad Month To Invest & Current Market Conditions" discusses the historical trends and market conditions that may influence your investment decisions this month.
The September Effect: An Emotional Rollercoaster
As the seasons shift, providing a welcome break from the heat of summer, the market often feels the effects of this transition, particularly as September has historically been a volatile month. There is ongoing speculation regarding the so-called "September effect," which resembles the festive Santa Claus rally seen at year-end but operates in the opposite emotional spectrum.
While some investors attribute the September effect to seasonal behavioral biases—such as portfolio rebalancing—others suggest it may also be linked to the anticipation of a new quarter beginning in October. Additionally, mutual funds frequently liquidate holdings to realize tax losses, further contributing to market fluctuations.
Amidst this seasonal sentiment shift, the market may encounter various unpredictable forces that can impact its trajectory. However, as we know, the market operates largely on emotion, which is to be expected.
To navigate these turbulent waters, it's crucial to separate your emotions from your investment decisions. Aim to hold your investments for at least five years to avoid short-term capital gains taxes and embrace passive investing strategies, which historically outperform active management, even with index funds.
The Market's Shaky Landscape
Despite the pandemic's initial market disruptions, 2022 has posed significant challenges, reminding investors that bull rallies can be fleeting. Recent events that have unsettled the market include:
- The Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Ongoing supply chain disruptions
- Deglobalization trends
- Climate change impacts
- Job cuts in various sectors
- Tensions between China, the U.S., and Taiwan
- Escalating inflation and a tight labor market
- Fed monetary policy changes
- Fiscal stimulus measures by Congress
- An energy crisis both domestically and internationally
If you adhere to my cash rule—keeping 2–5% of your net worth in cash—you'll likely feel more secure even as negative news arises. Compared to pre-pandemic times, many Americans are in a stronger financial position, though savings rates have plummeted amid rampant spending.
Unemployment is at historic lows, and the labor market remains robust. However, we must remain vigilant as the landscape shifts, and the return of retirees and hiring freezes may once again alter the dynamics.
Learning from History
Reflecting on historical patterns can provide valuable insights into future market behavior. While uncertainty is inherent in business, it’s essential to remain aware of what you can control—your cash reserves, passive income streams, and personal well-being.
Focusing on these priorities will help you navigate market volatility more effectively. Interestingly, perhaps this September will surprise us, proving to be a standout month rather than a downturn.
Traditionally, September has been the weakest month for the S&P 500, with an average decline of 0.5% since 1950, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has seen a 0.8% decline during the same period. Nonetheless, the September effect does not guarantee losses for the remainder of the month or year.
As one wise observer put it, "If you believe you will lose, you've already lost." Approach your financial journey as a learning experience, embracing both the highs and lows with a strong foundation at your side.
The second video titled "Why the Fed won't cut rates in July" explores the implications of Federal Reserve decisions on market trends and what it means for investors moving forward.